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The complete disposal decision workspace.
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MODEL TRANSPARENCY
Powerful enough to find an edge. Clear enough to trust.
The platform explains what contributes to a prediction, how confidence changes and where uncertainty remains—without exposing proprietary model weights.
What the model evaluates
Recent player volume, role stability, opponent defensive profile, venue, team selection, market price and other contextual signals are combined by a LightGBM model.
What Unavailable AUC means
AUC measures how effectively the model separates stronger and weaker outcomes across Unavailable walk-forward validation fixtures. It is not a promise that Unavailable of selections will win.
How predictions are monitored
Published probabilities are retained and compared against observed outcomes, closing prices and confidence bands. Model-version changes are marked on the performance timeline.
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CURRENT ROUND
Today’s intelligence
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Open Multi Builder →Slate confidenceUnavailableWaiting for model recordsBest available edgeUnavailableNo scored edge loadedMarket movers0Waiting for tracked marketsSaved this round0Loading account records
CURRENT FIXTURE
This weekend’s games
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Today’s best opportunities
Ranked by model edge and confidence
Player
Selection
Price
EV
Confidence
ANALYSIS TOOLS
Choose what you want to fetch
Each tool uses the selected game and current live markets.
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ANALYSIS READY
Coverage multi
ALL GAMES · ALL AVAILABLE LINES
Market scanner
The complete cross-game board for finding, filtering and comparing model opportunities.
Model opportunities
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High confidenceMedium
Player / game
Line
Projection
Market price
Fair price
EV
Confidence
Movement
COLLINGWOOD · MIDFIELDER
Nick Daicos
Next: Carlton · Friday 7:40 PM · MCG
Projection31.8disposals30+ probability62.8%+5.4 vs marketLast five average33.44 / 5 hitRole confidenceHighStable CBA share
Game-by-game disposal form
Actual results, selected line and next-game projection
SELECTED LINE30+ disposals
67%hit rate
NEXT PROJECTION31.8
AI reasoning
Evidence for 30+ disposals
UPDATES WITH LINE
Model probability62.8%
Season hit rate67%
Projection margin+1.8
+ Pros
− Cons
Model confidence
78
↗
Form profileTrending upL5 33.4 vs season 30.8
C
CBA share72.6%+4.8% last three games
D
Opponent DVP#14 / 18Carlton concede +2.1 vs mids
σ
ConsistencyHigh · 0.18 CVSeason range 23–41
H
H2H vs Carlton31.2 avg30+ in 4 of 6 games
⌖
Tag riskModeratePotential −3.4 projection impact
±
With / without uplift+1.3When primary inside mid is absent
⌂
Venue average32.6Last 8 games at the MCG
FULL MARKET LADDER
Nick Daicos disposal lines
Every available milestone from 10+ through 40+, with model probability, fair price and market value.
Positive EV Fairly priced
AI-ASSISTED COMBINATIONS
Multi builder
Build disciplined combinations with probability, price and correlation visible.
NOT GENERATED
Current-round multi workspace
Choose current games and markets, then generate a multi using the live backend.
CorrelationUnavailable
Role certaintyUnavailable
Market qualityUnavailable
COMBINED ODDS—Generate a multi to calculate price and EV
—confidence
No build yet
SELECTED LEGS
Your multi
✦
Why this combination works
Each leg comes from a different match, reducing shared game-state risk. All four players have stable roles and a positive model cushion at the selected milestone.
TRANSPARENT MODEL RECORD
Performance
Every published prediction, including losses, remains in the record.
Calculating retained performance…
Only settled recommendations and recorded prices will be shown here.
LIVE MARKET MONITOR
Market movement
See meaningful changes in genuine tracked prices.
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MATCHUP ROLE INTELLIGENCE
Tag intelligence
Likely tagging assignments, player vulnerability and their effect on disposal projections.
Active tag watches3Across this weekendHighest tag riskHighNick Daicos vs CarltonLargest projection impact−3.4Expected disposalsConfirmed taggers2Named in final teams
COL vs CAR
POTENTIAL TARGET
Nick Daicos
Projection reduced from 33.1 to 29.7 disposals
← tagged by →
LIKELY TAGGER
Adam Cerra
Role probability: 68%
Risk levelHIGH
Projection impact−3.4 disposals
Tagged games6 recorded
Avg under tag−12.8%
⌖
Carlton has deployed a close-checking role against elite opposition midfielders in four of its last six games. Daicos has shown a measurable volume reduction under comparable attention.
GCS vs MEL
Matt Rowell
Moderate attention risk · Projection impact −1.2
MONITOR
SYD vs ESS
Errol Gulden
Low tag risk · No projection adjustment
CLEAR
GAME INTELLIGENCE
Coach and team timeline
Press conferences, role changes, tag signals and team updates that may affect player projections.
Monitoring all nine games
TODAYSaturday 14 July
11:42AM
✦
ADE vs PTA
MODEL UPDATED
Jordan Dawson midfield role confirmed
Final teams support the expected midfield usage. The model has increased his 25+ disposal probability by eight percentage points.
Projection 26.1 → 28.4Confidence 72 → 80EV +6.1%
11:29AM
☂
COL vs CAR
MONITORING
Rain risk increasing at the MCG
Forecast rain probability has moved from 25% to 55%. No disposal projections have changed yet; the model will reassess closer to the bounce.
11:06AM
↗
GCS vs MEL
2 MARKETS RESCORED
Gold Coast omission creates midfield uplift
Historical with/without data indicates a modest possession uplift for Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson following the confirmed omission.
Rowell +1.4 disposalsAnderson +0.9 disposals
10:48AM
✓
SYD vs ESS
NO MODEL CHANGE
Sydney and Essendon teams confirmed as expected
No material role or availability changes. Existing projections remain current.
YESTERDAYFriday 13 July
6:20PM
◇
HAW vs PTA
SQUAD UPDATE
Extended squad named with one role uncertainty
The model is holding its current projection until the final interchange is confirmed.
PERSONAL BET RECORD
Placed multis
Track what you actually placed, your stake and the final result. This record is private to your account.
Your placed bets
Mark each multi won, lost or void after the match.
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PERSONAL LIVE DISPLAY
Overlay
Choose a multi, then show its translucent live sliders directly over the page where you watch the game.
Create manual multi
Add any Sportsbet or bookmaker legs yourself. It also appears in Placed multis.
PRIVATE
Your live overlays
Click “Use over game”, open the stream in this browser and click the AFL Live Overlay add-on. Stats refresh every 20 seconds.